Rafael Nadal and Hubert Hurkacz will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Saturday.
At this point in their respective careers, Hurkacz would be a massive favorite on a faster surface like grass or a hard court. Clay, however, obviously levels the playing field. On his Roman stomping grounds, where Nadal has triumphed on 10 occasions, he certainly has a chance.
The 37-year-old Spaniard most definitely earned his spot in this matchup, battling back from a set down to beat Zizou Bergs 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on Thursday. Nadal now owns a relatively encouraging 5-2 record during this clay-court swing, with a second-round loss to Alex de Minaur in Barcelona and a fourth-round exit from Madrid at the hands of Jiri Lehecka.
As is generally the case with Hurkacz, his clay-court results have been up and down. The ninth-ranked Pole won only six games against eventual finalist Casper Ruud in the Monte-Carlo third round and lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets in the last 16 of Madrid, but his dirt swing began with a title in Estoril.
This is not a terrible matchup for Nadal on clay, but it also isn’t an ideal one under any circumstances. Although the former world No. 1’s serve has improved since Barcelona, it still isn’t anywhere close to peak level–and with Hurkacz on the other side of the net you cannot afford to endure any service hiccups.
Even on clay, a whole lot of Hurkacz matches are decided by tiebreakers and come down to just a few crucial points. Given the service discrepancy between the two players and what is still a relative lack of matches under Nadal’s belt, Hurkacz will likely have the edge in those pressure-packed moments.
Pick: Hurkacz in 3
WWW: Hurkacz vs. Nadal?
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