The women don’t play in Monte-Carlo, so the Mutua Madrid Open marks the first of two clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments, which was preceded by a WTA 500 in Stuttgart. Elena Rybakina will be looking to make it two titles in as many weeks and conditions in Madrid should be good for her game, but she could be challenged by the usual suspects such as No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka.
Here are my best bets for the women’s 2024 Mutua Madrid Open.
Aryna Sabalenka (+650)
Sabalenka may not be at her very best on clay, but it is nonetheless no surprise at all to see what is an illustrious history in Madrid. Fast conditions at high altitude are great for Sabalenka’s game, and she has capitalized on them in the form of two titles (2021, 2023). There is no reason why the second-ranked Belarusian can’t win another one. Sabalenka has not been in peak form since triumphing at the Australian Open a few months ago, but she will be well rested to give it another go in Madrid after losing to Marketa Vondrousova in the Stuttgart quarterfinals.
Marketa Vondrousova (+3600)
Speaking of Vondrousova, Madrid is another event that should set up well for her following a semifinal showing in Stuttgart. Clay is the seventh-ranked Czech’s favorite surface and it’s obvious from last year’s results at Wimbledon (title) and the U.S. Open (quarterfinals) that she also likes quick conditions. Madrid presents the combination of the two, so she has every reason do well at this tournament even though she has never previously made any noise in the Spanish capital. Vondrousova is playing well and has a relatively favorable draw on the opposite side from Swiatek. She should like her chances.
Naomi Osaka (+6600)
At some point you have to think Osaka is going to power her way to a title from pretty much out of nowhere. When you can still get her at extremely long odds to win tournaments, it’s an opportunity worth taking. The four-time Grand Slam champion’s comeback following the birth of her first child has been up and down but unspectacular on the whole. She has suffered three first-round exits in seven events during the 2024 campaign but advanced to the quarterfinals in Doha, the third round in Indian Wells, and the third round in Miami. Like the case with Sabalenka, Madrid conditions should be ideal for Osaka even if clay isn’t her favorite.
Who will win WTA Madrid?
Who will win Madrid?
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