The race for the ATP No. 1 ranking is most definitely on after Jannik Sinner captured his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open this past Sunday.
Sinner remained at No. 4 in the world after defeating Daniil Medvedev 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 in a thrilling final at Melbourne Park, but the gap is closing. The 22-year-old Italian is now just 1,545 points behind top-ranked Novak Djokovic–less than the 2,000-point value a player gets for winning a major. Carlos Alcaraz is No. 2, trailing Djokovic by 600 points; Medvedev is next, only 490 points behind Alcaraz.
How could the pecking order shake out over the next few months?
Djokovic is the next player who will be defending 2,000 points, having lifted the French Open trophy last spring. However, the 36-year-old Serb has only 180 points (Dubai semifinals) coming off the board between now and the clay-court swing. He was unable to play either Indian Wells or Miami in 2023. Djokovic could rack up a whole bunch of points at those two Masters 1000 events, although there are rumblings that he could skip the Sunshine Double to rest up for the clay swing–specifically Roland Garros.
Alcaraz’s chance to regain the top spot may have come and gone in Melbourne, where had no points to defend after missing the year’s first Grand Slam in 2023. The 20-year-old Spaniard, who lost to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, will soon be defending champion’s points in Indian Wells (1,000), Barcelona (500), and Madrid (1,000). He also advanced to semifinals at the Miami Masters and French Open.
Medvedev caught fire after the Australian Open last season. The 27-year-old Russian reached five finals in a row, winning titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, and Miami while finishing runner-up to Alcaraz in Indian Wells. Needless to say, Medvedev has a boatload of points to defend before his next significant opportunity comes at Roland Garros–where he lost in the first round last year.
Sinner is in a similar–but undoubtedly better–position than Medvedev. In 2023 he advanced to three finals in between the Aussie Open and the clay-court swing, triumphing in Montpellier before falling to the Russian in Rotterdam and Miami. Sinner also reached semifinals in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo. After Monte-Carlo, though, Sinner has a huge chance to make a move. Last year he skipped Madrid, lost in the Rome fourth round, and was upset by Daniel Altmaier in the French Open second round.
If Djokovic skips Indian Wells and Miami, Sinner has the inside track to the No. 1 ranking by the end of the French Open. Everything, however, is on the table in what has become a super-tight race.
Who will win the French Open?
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